Gold Futures Basis Calculator

Compare synchronized spot and futures quotes, annualize the observed basis and keep carrying-cost context separate from any fair-value claim.

SPOT · FUTURES · BASIS · CARRY CONTEXT

Explain the quote difference before explaining the market

Enter synchronized spot and futures quotes in the same currency and unit. GoldObserve calculates the observed dollar and percentage basis, annualizes it over the entered expiry and shows financing, storage and insurance as a separate context reference.

Enter a synchronized spot and futures quote pairNo quote supplied

User-entered evidence · no provider quote invented

Use quotes with the same currency, unit and observation time. GoldObserve does not scrape a futures venue or present this worksheet as an executable arbitrage instruction.

01 · QUOTE PAIR

Separate the spot reference from the futures quote

The date difference is part of the meaning of a basis.

Spot price per troy ozFutures price per troy ozDays to expiryContract fine ounces

02 · CARRY CONTEXT

Show entered costs without calling them fair value

Financing, storage and insurance are context inputs, not a forecast.

Spot transaction cost / ozFutures transaction cost / ozAnnual financing (%)Annual storage (%)Annual insurance (%)

Enter positive spot and futures quotes in the same currency and unit. Days to expiry must be at least 1.

THE DIRECT ANSWER

Contango is an observed relationship, not a price forecast

When the entered futures quote is above spot, the worksheet labels the observation contango. When it is below, it labels backwardation. Neither label says which quote is correct, whether the spread will converge, or whether a trade is executable. Basis is a relationship between two dated quotes, not a directional prediction.

BASIS PER FINE OUNCEFutures quote − spot quote

Annualization scales the observed percentage by 365 divided by days to expiry; it does not create a return forecast.

WHAT CARRY DOES AND DOES NOT SHOW

Financing, storage and insurance are context inputs, not a fair-value oracle

LayerWhat the worksheet showsWhat it does not prove

Observed basisThe arithmetic difference between two entered quotes.That the spread is mispriced or tradeable.

Entered carryFinancing, storage and insurance assumptions over the entered days.Convenience yield, funding availability or a theoretical fair value.

Contract differenceThe per-ounce basis multiplied by entered fine ounces.Margin, leverage, settlement, tax or delivery economics.

EVIDENCE CHECKLIST

Match the quotes before interpreting the spread

01Use the same currency, unit and timestamp convention for spot and futures.

02Record the exact futures contract, venue, delivery month and days-to-expiry convention.

03Keep bid, ask and last prices separate; do not combine one side of each market.

04Enter written costs rather than assuming storage, financing or insurance is zero.

05Review margin, settlement, liquidity, tax and counterparty rules outside this worksheet.

06Do not describe annualized basis as expected return or a convergence guarantee.

RELATED DECISIONS