Gold Position Size & Drawdown Budget Calculator

Translate a maximum tolerable portfolio loss into an execution-aware gold position without treating a stress scenario as a forecast.

LOSS BUDGET · DOWNSIDE STRESS · EXECUTION LIMIT

Work backward from the loss you can tolerate

Set a maximum loss for the whole portfolio, choose a conditional gold decline, and enter the costs that separate spot from an executable position. The worksheet returns the smaller of the risk-budget limit and the funding limit, then rounds down when only whole products can be purchased.

Gold reference used for acquisition and stress mathEnter a price

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DATA STATUS

Price reference

Shows the source and observation time of the metal price used here. Product premiums, dealer quotes and taxes are separate.

International XAU/USD referenceConnecting

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01 · LOSS BUDGET

Define the portfolio loss you are willing to model

The percentage is your risk policy input, not a recommended limit.

Total portfolio valueMaximum portfolio loss (%)Applies to the whole portfolio, not just the gold sleeve.Gold stress decline (%)A conditional downside test, not a forecast.Spot price per troy oz

02 · EXECUTION FRICTION

Model what can actually be purchased and exited

Spot exposure and cash committed are reported separately.

Execution modeFine gold per productPurchase premium (%)Stress-exit discount (%)Fixed buy costFixed sell cost

Enter a positive portfolio and gold price, a loss budget from 0.01% to 100%, and a downside stress between 0.01% and 99.99%.

THE DIRECT ANSWER

Position size is a consequence of the risk budget, not a price prediction

A $100,000 portfolio with a 2% maximum modeled loss has a $2,000 loss budget. That does not mean gold will fall by the selected amount, nor that 2% is suitable. It means the worksheet limits entered gold exposure so the modeled acquisition-to-stress-exit loss stays within the user-defined $2,000 boundary.

MAXIMUM VARIABLE EXPOSURE(Loss budget − fixed buy and sell costs) ÷ loss per fine ounce

The result is also capped by the amount the portfolio can fund.

TWO INDEPENDENT LIMITS

The stricter constraint decides the maximum position

ConstraintQuestion answeredWhat tightens it

Loss budgetHow much exposure fits before the selected stress loss reaches the portfolio limit?A larger decline, higher premium, wider exit discount or higher fixed costs.

Portfolio fundingHow much exposure can the entered portfolio pay for today?A higher acquisition price, premium or fixed buy cost.

WHAT THE MODEL LEAVES OUT

A single stress endpoint cannot describe the whole risk path

01The selected decline is a scenario, not a forecast, probability or confidence interval.

02Dealer spreads can widen during stress; enter a more conservative exit discount when testing liquidity.

03Taxes, custody, insurance, account rules and counterparty losses remain outside this worksheet.

04Currency changes matter when the portfolio or purchase is not actually denominated in USD.

05Whole-product mode rounds down; inventory and minimum order policies can impose additional limits.

06Suitability and the loss budget itself require the user or adviser’s judgment.

RELATED DECISIONS