EXPIRING CONTRACT · NEXT CONTRACT · ROLL COST
Measure the calendar spread before calling it a continuation of spot exposure
Enter the exact prices for the contract you are leaving and the contract you are entering. GoldObserve calculates the observed spread, annualizes it over the entered date gap and adds your two transaction costs separately.
Use the same currency, unit, quote side and timestamp convention. The roll spread is not a guaranteed loss or return; execution, margin, liquidity, funding and settlement rules remain outside this worksheet.
Separate the expiring contract from the next contract
The date gap gives the spread its annualized context.
Keep the two transactions visible
Entry and exit friction changes net roll cost without changing the quoted spread.
THE DIRECT ANSWER
A positive roll spread is an observed price difference, not a guaranteed loss
When the next contract is above the expiring contract, the worksheet labels the pair contango. When it is below, it labels backwardation. The label describes the two quotes at the selected time; it does not predict the next contract, promise convergence or measure the complete economic return of a futures strategy.
Annualization scales the observed percentage by 365 divided by the entered days between expiries. It is not an expected return.
WHAT THIS WORKSHEET LEAVES OUT
Price difference is only one layer of the roll decision
ROLL CHECKLIST
Record the contract pair before you move the position
01Write the exact expiring and next contract codes, months and venues.
02Use the same currency, unit, quote side and observation timestamp.
03Record first notice, last trade, broker cut-off and intended settlement rules.
04Enter both legs' commission, spread and slippage assumptions separately.
05Check margin, liquidity, collateral return and any delivery or tax boundary outside this worksheet.
06Do not describe annualized roll cost as a price forecast or guaranteed strategy return.
RELATED DECISIONS