THE SHORT ANSWER
Gold volatility changes through time, and the selected window changes the answer
Rolling volatility measures the dispersion of monthly gold returns inside a moving window. A 12-month window reacts quickly but can be dominated by one shock; 36 and 60 months respond more slowly and are better for regime context. None of them predicts direction. The volatility cone below shows where each latest estimate sits inside its own complete historical distribution.
Annualized sample standard deviation through 2026-07.
Annualized sample standard deviation through 2026-07.
Annualized sample standard deviation through 2026-07.
Not a daily realized-volatility measure.
INTERACTIVE VOLATILITY CONE
Where does today's estimate sit inside each window's own history?
Compare six lookback windows without hiding their historical spread. The shaded bands are empirical percentiles, the line marks each historical median and the points show the latest annualized estimate. Select a window to reveal its exact sample and current rank.
CURRENT POSITION IN HISTORY
Latest 12-month volatility is near the high end of its own history
The latest value is compared only with completed 12-month windows using the same monthly method.
How to read it: wider bands mean that the same lookback window has produced a broader range of historical volatility estimates. The outer band excludes the most extreme 10% of completed windows; those extremes remain in the table and CSV.
| Window | Sample | 5th–95th | 25th–75th | Median | Latest | Latest rank | Observed extremes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 7961960-04 onward | 0.0%–27.0% | 4.6%–13.7% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 55.9% | 0.0%–102.8% |
| 6 months | 7931960-07 onward | 0.0%–27.4% | 7.0%–14.4% | 10.2% | 15.3% | 78.3% | 0.0%–70.2% |
| 12 months | 7871961-01 onward | 0.0%–28.9% | 8.2%–14.2% | 10.8% | 21.0% | 88.8% | 0.0%–52.5% |
| 24 months | 7751962-01 onward | 0.0%–27.9% | 9.2%–15.3% | 11.4% | 16.0% | 79.0% | 0.0%–42.1% |
| 36 months | 7631963-01 onward | 0.0%–27.8% | 9.8%–15.1% | 11.5% | 14.2% | 71.6% | 0.0%–37.0% |
| 60 months | 7391965-01 onward | 1.3%–29.1% | 10.2%–16.5% | 12.1% | 13.2% | 63.5% | 0.0%–32.3% |
ANNUAL VOLATILITY STATE TRANSITIONS
Year-end volatility often persisted, but every starting state also changed
Classify each December's trailing 12-month volatility into lower, middle or upper historical thirds, then follow its state one year forward. The fixed 64-transition denominator and exact years prevent the cell shading from being mistaken for a forecast or a natural risk threshold.
1961→1962 through 2024→2025.
53.1% of descriptive transitions.
2024→2025: 10.5% to 12.0%.
How to read it: each row begins with one historical volatility third; each column shows the state at the following December. Counts and percentages use the row's starting states as the denominator. The thresholds are lower ≤ 9.3%, middle ≤ 12.5% and upper above 12.5% in this retained sample.
| Starting state | Next-year state | Transitions | Starting-state total | Row share | Exact starting years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower third | Lower third | 14 | 22 | 63.6% | 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1970, 1991, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 2001, 2017 |
| Lower third | Middle third | 4 | 22 | 18.2% | 1967, 2004, 2018, 2023 |
| Lower third | Upper third | 4 | 22 | 18.2% | 1971, 1992, 1998, 2002 |
| Middle third | Lower third | 2 | 20 | 10.0% | 1969, 2000 |
| Middle third | Middle third | 10 | 20 | 50.0% | 1968, 1984, 1987, 1988, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2019, 2020, 2024 |
| Middle third | Upper third | 8 | 20 | 40.0% | 1977, 1985, 1989, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2015, 2021 |
| Upper third | Lower third | 5 | 22 | 22.7% | 1990, 1993, 2003, 2016, 2022 |
| Upper third | Middle third | 7 | 22 | 31.8% | 1976, 1983, 1986, 1999, 2006, 2009, 2011 |
| Upper third | Upper third | 10 | 22 | 45.5% | 1972, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 2008 |
Source: World Bank monthly-average nominal USD gold. Volatility states and transitions are GoldObserve calculations from the unchanged locally versioned series.
INTERACTIVE ROLLING WINDOW
Compare fast and slow measures without treating either as a forecast
Choose 3, 6, 12, 24, 36 or 60 months, then inspect the exact source-derived value with pointer, touch or keyboard controls. The chart annualizes monthly dispersion with square-root-of-time scaling.
Crosshairs snap to a calculated observation. Monthly averages smooth intramonth highs, lows and drawdowns; this chart is not a daily close series. Historical windows overlap and are not independent forecasts.
Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), monthly nominal USD per troy ounce, CC BY 4.0. GoldObserve serves the bundled local series; page loads do not download the upstream workbook.
WINDOW COMPARISON
Latest, minimum and maximum annualized monthly volatility
| Window | First available | Latest | Latest volatility | Historical minimum | Historical maximum | Observations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 1960-04 | 2026-07 | +9.8% | +0.0% | +102.8% | 796 |
| 6 months | 1960-07 | 2026-07 | +15.3% | +0.0% | +70.2% | 793 |
| 12 months | 1961-01 | 2026-07 | +21.0% | +0.0% | +52.5% | 787 |
| 24 months | 1962-01 | 2026-07 | +16.0% | +0.0% | +42.1% | 775 |
| 36 months | 1963-01 | 2026-07 | +14.2% | +0.0% | +37.0% | 763 |
| 60 months | 1965-01 | 2026-07 | +13.2% | +0.0% | +32.3% | 739 |
REPRODUCIBLE FORMULA
Monthly log returns, sample dispersion and square-root-of-time scaling
r(t) = ln[monthly average(t) / monthly average(t-1)].
Keep the latest 3, 6, 12, 24, 36 or 60 monthly log returns.
Calculate sample standard deviation using n - 1 in the denominator.
Multiply monthly standard deviation by sqrt(12), then express it as a percentage.
Square-root-of-time annualization is a convention, not proof that returns are independent or normally distributed. Serial correlation, volatility clustering and jumps can make realized outcomes differ from a simple scaled estimate.
HOW TO USE THE NUMBER
Volatility is a risk description, not a buy or sell signal
A monthly volatility estimate does not include premiums, dealer bids or time needed to liquidate.
Comparing monthly gold volatility with daily equity volatility without reconciliation is misleading.
High realized volatility may persist or collapse; it does not reveal direction.
A USD monthly-average result is not interchangeable with local-currency or daily-close volatility.
Source and statistical limitsWorld Bank monthly history · CC BY 4.0
SOURCE, LICENSE & REPRODUCIBILITY
The statistics use one consistent monthly series
The source is the World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), licensed CC BY 4.0. The workbook was published 2026-08-04, retrieved 2026-08-07, and recorded with SHA-256 7902a77505ebdc5d202ce65f666c2ee1b04b626f042d7738ed3e6f7d112c8433.
The values are monthly averages in nominal US dollars per troy ounce. They are not London auction prices, daily closes, intraday highs or executable dealer quotes.
CONTINUE THE RESEARCH
Keep monthly long-run statistics separate from recent daily data
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
Questions about this historical statistic
How is historical gold volatility calculated here?
GoldObserve calculates monthly logarithmic returns, takes the sample standard deviation inside a rolling window and annualizes it by multiplying by the square root of 12.
Why are 12-, 36- and 60-month volatility different?
Short windows react faster to recent changes. Longer windows are smoother and retain older observations, so they answer different questions.
Does volatility show whether gold went up or down?
No. Volatility measures dispersion, not direction. A rising and a falling period can have the same volatility.
Is monthly volatility the same as daily volatility?
No. Sampling frequency changes the return series and can hide intramonth movement. Do not compare the figures without naming the frequency and method.
Can high volatility forecast a gold-price reversal?
No. It describes how variable recent monthly returns were. It does not identify direction, fair value or the timing of a reversal.