THE SHORT ANSWER
Ending returns hide the losses an investor had to survive along the way
The deepest peak-to-trough decline in this monthly-average World Bank series begins at the 1980-01 peak and reaches its trough in 1999-07, a decline of 62.1%. Because the input is monthly average rather than daily price, the result should be read as a smoothed long-run drawdown, not the worst tradable loss or exact investor experience.
1980-01 peak to 1999-07 trough.
First monthly average at or above the prior peak.
Elapsed calendar months, not trading sessions.
Daily losses may have been deeper.
DRAWDOWN & RECOVERY LABORATORY
Compare the path, depth and duration of six major drawdowns
Select an episode to inspect every monthly observation from its prior peak to recovery or the latest available month. The path chart preserves exact elapsed time; the scatter separates depth from duration so a long shallow episode is not visually confused with a short deep decline.
SELECTED HISTORICAL EPISODE
1980 peak fell 62.1% and took 316 months to recover
Every point is measured from that episode's own monthly-average peak, so price levels from different decades do not distort the comparison.
PATH FROM PEAK
1980-01 peak to 2006-05 recovery
Use pointer, touch, Home, End or arrow keys for exact monthly values.
DEPTH × DURATION
Deeper did not always mean proportionally longer
Open episodes use elapsed months through the latest observation and remain hollow.
| Peak | Trough | Depth | Months to trough | Recovery / latest | Elapsed months | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1980-01 | 1999-07 | -62.1% | 234 | 2006-05 | 316 | Recovered |
| 1974-12 | 1976-08 | -40.2% | 20 | 1978-03 | 39 | Recovered |
| 2011-09 | 2015-12 | -39.3% | 51 | 2020-07 | 106 | Recovered |
| 2008-03 | 2008-11 | -21.4% | 8 | 2009-09 | 18 | Recovered |
| 1973-07 | 1973-11 | -20.8% | 4 | 1974-01 | 6 | Recovered |
| 2026-02 | 2026-07 | -18.9% | 5 | 2026-07 | 5 | Open / right-censored |
Interpretation boundary: a benchmark monthly-average recovery is not an investor break-even. The selected episodes are ranked by observed depth, not probability, importance or expected recurrence.
INTERACTIVE UNDERWATER CHART
Track distance below the prior monthly-average peak
Zero means the series is at a new high. Negative values show how far the current monthly average sits below the prior peak. The filled area, exact crosshair and recovery summary keep depth and duration visible together.
The filled area measures distance below the running monthly-average peak. Recovery is the first later monthly average at or above that peak; product premiums, spreads, storage and tax are excluded.
Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), local monthly nominal USD per troy ounce. Source workbook updated 2026-08-04; retrieved 2026-08-07. These charts describe history and are not price forecasts.
DEEPEST EPISODES
Peak, trough and first monthly-average recovery
| Peak | Trough | Drawdown | Months to trough | Recovery | Months peak to recovery | Peak / trough |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1980-01 | 1999-07 | -62.1% | 234 | 2006-05 | 316 | $675.00 / $256.00 |
| 1974-12 | 1976-08 | -40.2% | 20 | 1978-03 | 39 | $184.00 / $110.00 |
| 2011-09 | 2015-12 | -39.3% | 51 | 2020-07 | 106 | $1,772.00 / $1,076.00 |
| 2008-03 | 2008-11 | -21.4% | 8 | 2009-09 | 18 | $968.00 / $761.00 |
| 1973-07 | 1973-11 | -20.8% | 4 | 1974-01 | 6 | $120.00 / $95.00 |
| 2026-02 | 2026-07 | -18.9% | 5 | Unrecovered | Open | $5,020.00 / $4,073.00 |
| 1969-05 | 1969-12 | -18.6% | 7 | 1971-08 | 27 | $43.00 / $35.00 |
| 1974-04 | 1974-07 | -16.9% | 3 | 1974-11 | 7 | $172.00 / $143.00 |
| 2020-08 | 2022-10 | -15.5% | 26 | 2023-04 | 32 | $1,969.00 / $1,664.00 |
| 2006-05 | 2006-10 | -13.2% | 5 | 2007-04 | 11 | $675.00 / $586.00 |
| 1978-10 | 1978-11 | -9.3% | 1 | 1979-01 | 3 | $227.00 / $206.00 |
| 1972-08 | 1972-11 | -6.0% | 3 | 1973-02 | 6 | $67.00 / $63.00 |
FORMULA & RECOVERY
Drawdown is measured from a running peak, not from the page's first value
At each month, retain the highest monthly average observed so far.
(Current monthly average / running peak - 1) x 100.
Keep the lowest value reached before the old peak is recovered.
The first later monthly average at or above that peak marks recovery.
A 50% decline requires a 100% gain from the trough to recover because percentage losses and gains use different bases. Recovery time is therefore not proportional to drawdown depth, and a shallower decline can remain underwater longer than a deeper one.
INVESTOR BOUNDARY
A benchmark recovery is not automatically a portfolio recovery
A physical buyer who paid a retail premium and later receives a dealer bid below spot needs a higher reference price to break even. A non-US holder also experiences currency translation. Fund expenses, tax, financing and storage create additional differences. Use the position-performance guide to reconcile market drawdown with actual cash flows and product costs.
Maximum drawdown also says nothing about probability. It is the single worst historical episode inside the selected sample. It does not estimate how often a similar loss will occur, and it should not be converted into a stop-loss rule without a separate trading model.
Source and statistical limitsWorld Bank monthly history · CC BY 4.0
SOURCE, LICENSE & REPRODUCIBILITY
The statistics use one consistent monthly series
The source is the World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), licensed CC BY 4.0. The workbook was published 2026-08-04, retrieved 2026-08-07, and recorded with SHA-256 7902a77505ebdc5d202ce65f666c2ee1b04b626f042d7738ed3e6f7d112c8433.
The values are monthly averages in nominal US dollars per troy ounce. They are not London auction prices, daily closes, intraday highs or executable dealer quotes.
CONTINUE THE RESEARCH
Keep monthly long-run statistics separate from recent daily data
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
Questions about this historical statistic
What is a gold drawdown?
A drawdown is the percentage decline from a prior running peak to a later observation. This page uses World Bank monthly averages, so its peaks and troughs are monthly-average values.
Does the table show the worst daily gold loss?
No. Monthly averages smooth daily and intramonth extremes. A daily series can show a deeper and differently dated drawdown.
When is a drawdown recovered?
Recovery occurs at the first later monthly average that equals or exceeds the preceding peak monthly average. It is not a guarantee that every investor recovered after costs.
Does maximum drawdown predict the next decline?
No. Maximum drawdown is backward-looking path evidence. A future decline can be smaller, larger, shorter or longer.
Why can an investor's loss differ from this table?
Purchase timing, currency, premiums, spreads, storage, fees, taxes and the specific product can all move the investor result away from the nominal USD reference series.