THE SHORT ANSWER
Gold's extreme monthly-average moves are real observations, not reusable targets
The largest adjacent monthly-average gain in the local World Bank history ends 1980-01 at +48.35%; the largest decline ends 1980-03 at -16.69%. Both are smoothed monthly-average changes. They identify historical tail events but do not reveal the worst daily path, a price target or the expected size of a future move.
1979-12 to 1980-01.
1980-02 to 1980-03.
Strict adjacent-month comparisons.
Monthly averages smooth the daily path.
EXTREME-MONTH TIME ATLAS
Did the largest gains and losses cluster in a few historical periods?
Choose five, ten or fifteen observations on each side, then inspect where the ending months fall inside each decade. Circle and diamond shapes preserve gain/loss meaning without relying on colour, while mark size shows absolute change.
Gain rank 1: $455.00 → $675.00.
11 gains and 3 losses at this tail depth.
2020s exposure is partial through 2026-07.
How to read it: horizontal position is the ending month inside each decade, not a shared calendar date. Concentration can identify periods worth investigating, but it does not estimate recurrence. The shorter 2020s row has fewer opportunities to enter a fixed-rank tail.
| End month | Side / rank | Start value | End value | Change | Decade position |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1969-11 | Loss #14 | $40.00 | $37.00 | -7.50% | 1960s · month 118 |
| 1972-05 | Gain #15 | $49.00 | $55.00 | +12.24% | 1970s · month 28 |
| 1972-06 | Gain #13 | $55.00 | $62.00 | +12.73% | 1970s · month 29 |
| 1973-02 | Gain #11 | $65.00 | $74.00 | +13.85% | 1970s · month 37 |
| 1973-03 | Gain #12 | $74.00 | $84.00 | +13.51% | 1970s · month 38 |
| 1973-06 | Gain #5 | $102.00 | $120.00 | +17.65% | 1970s · month 41 |
| 1973-08 | Loss #8 | $120.00 | $107.00 | -10.83% | 1970s · month 43 |
| 1973-12 | Gain #14 | $95.00 | $107.00 | +12.63% | 1970s · month 47 |
| 1974-01 | Gain #2 | $107.00 | $129.00 | +20.56% | 1970s · month 48 |
| 1974-02 | Gain #8 | $129.00 | $150.00 | +16.28% | 1970s · month 49 |
| 1974-11 | Gain #10 | $159.00 | $182.00 | +14.47% | 1970s · month 58 |
| 1975-09 | Loss #6 | $163.00 | $144.00 | -11.66% | 1970s · month 68 |
| 1978-11 | Loss #11 | $227.00 | $206.00 | -9.25% | 1970s · month 106 |
| 1979-09 | Gain #4 | $301.00 | $355.00 | +17.94% | 1970s · month 116 |
| 1979-12 | Gain #9 | $392.00 | $455.00 | +16.07% | 1970s · month 119 |
| 1980-01 | Gain #1 | $455.00 | $675.00 | +48.35% | 1980s · month 0 |
| 1980-03 | Loss #1 | $665.00 | $554.00 | -16.69% | 1980s · month 2 |
| 1980-06 | Gain #7 | $514.00 | $601.00 | +16.93% | 1980s · month 5 |
| 1980-12 | Loss #3 | $625.00 | $538.00 | -13.92% | 1980s · month 11 |
| 1981-02 | Loss #10 | $557.00 | $500.00 | -10.23% | 1980s · month 13 |
| 1981-07 | Loss #7 | $461.00 | $409.00 | -11.28% | 1980s · month 18 |
| 1982-03 | Loss #4 | $374.00 | $330.00 | -11.76% | 1980s · month 26 |
| 1982-09 | Gain #3 | $364.00 | $437.00 | +20.05% | 1980s · month 32 |
| 1983-03 | Loss #2 | $491.00 | $420.00 | -14.46% | 1980s · month 38 |
| 1984-07 | Loss #12 | $378.00 | $348.00 | -7.94% | 1980s · month 54 |
| 1988-02 | Loss #15 | $477.00 | $442.00 | -7.34% | 1980s · month 97 |
| 1999-10 | Gain #6 | $265.00 | $311.00 | +17.36% | 1990s · month 117 |
| 2006-06 | Loss #5 | $675.00 | $596.00 | -11.70% | 2000s · month 77 |
| 2008-08 | Loss #9 | $940.00 | $839.00 | -10.74% | 2000s · month 103 |
| 2026-06 | Loss #13 | $4,587.00 | $4,228.00 | -7.83% | 2020s · month 77 |
INTERACTIVE MONTHLY PATH
Locate tail events inside the complete chronology
Choose the recent 20 years, 40 years or all available history, then inspect exact monthly-average changes with pointer, touch or keyboard crosshairs. A dramatic point should be read alongside its date and source definition.
Crosshairs snap to a calculated observation. Monthly averages smooth intramonth highs, lows and drawdowns; this chart is not a daily close series. Historical windows overlap and are not independent forecasts.
Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), monthly nominal USD per troy ounce, CC BY 4.0. GoldObserve serves the bundled local series; page loads do not download the upstream workbook.
LARGEST GAINS
Top 15 adjacent monthly-average increases
| Rank | Start month | End month | Start average | End average | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1979-12 | 1980-01 | $455.00 | $675.00 | +48.35% |
| 2 | 1973-12 | 1974-01 | $107.00 | $129.00 | +20.56% |
| 3 | 1982-08 | 1982-09 | $364.00 | $437.00 | +20.05% |
| 4 | 1979-08 | 1979-09 | $301.00 | $355.00 | +17.94% |
| 5 | 1973-05 | 1973-06 | $102.00 | $120.00 | +17.65% |
| 6 | 1999-09 | 1999-10 | $265.00 | $311.00 | +17.36% |
| 7 | 1980-05 | 1980-06 | $514.00 | $601.00 | +16.93% |
| 8 | 1974-01 | 1974-02 | $129.00 | $150.00 | +16.28% |
| 9 | 1979-11 | 1979-12 | $392.00 | $455.00 | +16.07% |
| 10 | 1974-10 | 1974-11 | $159.00 | $182.00 | +14.47% |
| 11 | 1973-01 | 1973-02 | $65.00 | $74.00 | +13.85% |
| 12 | 1973-02 | 1973-03 | $74.00 | $84.00 | +13.51% |
| 13 | 1972-05 | 1972-06 | $55.00 | $62.00 | +12.73% |
| 14 | 1973-11 | 1973-12 | $95.00 | $107.00 | +12.63% |
| 15 | 1972-04 | 1972-05 | $49.00 | $55.00 | +12.24% |
LARGEST LOSSES
Top 15 adjacent monthly-average declines
| Rank | Start month | End month | Start average | End average | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1980-02 | 1980-03 | $665.00 | $554.00 | -16.69% |
| 2 | 1983-02 | 1983-03 | $491.00 | $420.00 | -14.46% |
| 3 | 1980-11 | 1980-12 | $625.00 | $538.00 | -13.92% |
| 4 | 1982-02 | 1982-03 | $374.00 | $330.00 | -11.76% |
| 5 | 2006-05 | 2006-06 | $675.00 | $596.00 | -11.70% |
| 6 | 1975-08 | 1975-09 | $163.00 | $144.00 | -11.66% |
| 7 | 1981-06 | 1981-07 | $461.00 | $409.00 | -11.28% |
| 8 | 1973-07 | 1973-08 | $120.00 | $107.00 | -10.83% |
| 9 | 2008-07 | 2008-08 | $940.00 | $839.00 | -10.74% |
| 10 | 1981-01 | 1981-02 | $557.00 | $500.00 | -10.23% |
| 11 | 1978-10 | 1978-11 | $227.00 | $206.00 | -9.25% |
| 12 | 1984-06 | 1984-07 | $378.00 | $348.00 | -7.94% |
| 13 | 2026-05 | 2026-06 | $4,587.00 | $4,228.00 | -7.83% |
| 14 | 1969-10 | 1969-11 | $40.00 | $37.00 | -7.50% |
| 15 | 1988-01 | 1988-02 | $477.00 | $442.00 | -7.34% |
READING EXTREMES
A ranked tail table cannot explain its own cause
An extreme month can coincide with inflation shocks, changing real rates, currency moves, war, financial stress, policy changes, investment flows or market-structure transitions. Coincidence alone is not an independent causal estimate. A responsible explanation matches source dates, asks what was known at the time and checks whether several drivers moved together.
Extremes are also asymmetric in recovery math. A 20% loss requires a 25% gain from the lower base to return to the starting level. The gold drawdown history follows that path across multiple months instead of stopping at the single worst row.
Source, formula and limitsWorld Bank monthly history · CC BY 4.0
SOURCE, LICENSE & REPRODUCIBILITY
Every result uses one consistent monthly series
The source is the World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), licensed CC BY 4.0. It contains 799 monthly gold averages from 1960-01 through 2026-07. The workbook was published 2026-08-04, retrieved 2026-08-07, and recorded with SHA-256 7902a77505ebdc5d202ce65f666c2ee1b04b626f042d7738ed3e6f7d112c8433.
Monthly change = (current monthly average / prior monthly average - 1) × 100. Only adjacent calendar months are used. The result is not a daily close return, intramonth high or low, dealer quote or exact investor fill.
CONTINUE THE RESEARCH
Move from calendar grouping to tails, distribution and holding periods
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
Questions about monthly gold-return evidence
What is the best gold month in this history?
The page ranks consecutive World Bank monthly-average changes. The top row is the largest percentage increase between two adjacent monthly averages, not necessarily the best daily month-end return.
What is the worst gold month in this history?
It is the largest adjacent monthly-average percentage decline in the local series. Intramonth prices may have fallen further than the smoothed averages show.
Do extreme months repeat?
They can, but this table does not estimate when or how often another tail event will occur. The political, inflation, rate and currency setting changes.
Why show the starting and ending price?
The endpoints make the percentage calculation auditable and prevent a large percentage from being detached from its actual source values.
Do these extremes include premiums and spreads?
No. They are benchmark monthly-average changes before any physical-product, fund, tax, financing or custody cost.