THE SHORT ANSWER
Lump sum gets earlier exposure; DCA changes the price path you experience
This study gives both strategies the same total budget and the same terminal month. Lump sum buys at the first monthly average. DCA divides the budget equally across every month before the endpoint. The winner therefore depends on the path: early price gains tend to reward earlier exposure, while declines during the contribution period let DCA acquire more ounces later. Historical win frequency is descriptive and does not select a strategy for the next window.
272 of 787 completed cohorts; ties: 85.
251 of 763 completed cohorts; ties: 61.
207 of 739 completed cohorts; ties: 37.
Common terminal monthly average for both paths.
INTERACTIVE COHORT STUDY
Inspect when DCA finished ahead or behind
The chart plots DCA terminal return minus lump-sum terminal return in percentage points of the original budget. Values above zero favor DCA; values below zero favor lump sum. Change the contribution period and inspect each completed cohort.
Crosshairs snap to a calculated observation. Monthly averages smooth intramonth highs, lows and drawdowns; this chart is not a daily close series. Historical windows overlap and are not independent forecasts.
Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), monthly nominal USD per troy ounce, CC BY 4.0. GoldObserve serves the bundled local series; page loads do not download the upstream workbook.
OUTCOME QUADRANT LAB
A relative winner can still leave both strategies below budget
The diagonal identifies which purchase method finished ahead; the zero axes preserve whether each method made or lost benchmark value. Select a cohort to inspect both terminal returns instead of reading the difference alone.
54.9% of completed cohorts.
22.9% of completed cohorts.
A relative win was still an absolute loss.
How to read it: the diagonal answers which method finished ahead; the zero axes answer whether each method finished above the original budget. A diamond above the diagonal can still sit in the lower-left loss quadrant. That is a relative DCA win, not a profitable outcome.
| Contribution period | Cohorts | Both above budget | Both below budget | DCA ahead while both below | Lump sum ahead while both above | Different signs or one at budget | Equal terminal return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | 787 | 399 | 222 | 182 | 352 | 82 | 85 |
| 3Y | 763 | 419 | 175 | 147 | 356 | 109 | 61 |
| 5Y | 739 | 457 | 139 | 109 | 403 | 107 | 37 |
Source: World Bank monthly-average nominal USD gold through 2026-07. The map controls total capital and terminal month but does not model interest on uninvested cash or transaction friction.
SAME-CAPITAL RESULTS
Win counts, median gap and the most extreme historical cohorts
| Contribution period | Cohorts | DCA wins | Lump-sum wins | DCA win frequency | Median DCA minus lump sum | Best DCA cohort | Best lump-sum cohort |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | 787 | 272 | 430 | 34.6% | -1.1% | 1980-10 to 1981-10 (+22.0%) | 1979-08 to 1980-08 (-76.0%) |
| 3 years | 763 | 251 | 451 | 32.9% | -4.8% | 1980-09 to 1983-09 (+34.5%) | 1971-12 to 1974-12 (-207.3%) |
| 5 years | 739 | 207 | 495 | 28.0% | -10.7% | 1980-10 to 1985-10 (+34.4%) | 1970-08 to 1975-08 (-225.2%) |
CALCULATION METHOD
The comparison controls capital and endpoint, then changes only purchase timing
Results scale to any currency amount, so the study begins with one dollar of total capital.
Buy one dollar divided by the first monthly average, then value those ounces at the endpoint.
Divide one dollar equally across 12, 36 or 60 monthly averages before the endpoint.
Subtract lump-sum return from DCA return at the same ending monthly average.
The model assigns no return to cash waiting to be invested. Adding interest on uninvested cash would improve DCA relative to this baseline; adding repeated purchase fees or small-lot physical premiums could worsen it. Both belong in a user-specific calculation rather than being silently assumed.
DECISION FRAMEWORK
The cash is already available and the cash arrives monthly are different decisions
The first row is what this historical cohort study measures. The second is not a fair lump-sum choice unless the future income is somehow available upfront. The third requires written dealer prices. Use the gold DCA calculator to enter recurring contribution size, premium and transaction cost for a selected historical window.
WHAT CAN REVERSE THE RESULT
Costs, idle-cash return and the contribution schedule matter
A steady early rise leaves later DCA purchases buying fewer ounces.
That can improve average acquisition cost without guaranteeing a positive terminal return.
Minimum shipping, card charges or fixed commissions can erase a timing advantage.
This baseline deliberately excludes it so the gold-price timing effect remains visible.
Source and study limitsWorld Bank monthly history · CC BY 4.0
SOURCE, LICENSE & LIMITS
The study uses one consistent monthly history
The source is the World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), licensed CC BY 4.0. It contains 799 monthly gold observations from 1960-01 through 2026-07. The source workbook was published 2026-08-04, retrieved 2026-08-07, and preserved with SHA-256 7902a77505ebdc5d202ce65f666c2ee1b04b626f042d7738ed3e6f7d112c8433.
The values are nominal US-dollar monthly averages per troy ounce. They are not daily closes, dealer quotes, London auction prices or exact transaction prices.
CONTINUE THE RESEARCH
Separate holding-period evidence from a personal investment result
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
Questions about gold holding-period evidence
How does this lump-sum versus DCA study keep capital equal?
For each window, lump sum invests the entire budget at the first monthly average. DCA divides the same budget equally across each month before the common terminal observation.
Does a DCA win mean it made a profit?
No. DCA can finish above lump sum while both strategies lose money, or finish below lump sum while both gain. The comparison measures relative terminal value, not absolute success.
Why are there no premiums or transaction fees in the long-run study?
The study isolates timing with one common source series. Personal premiums and fees vary by product and purchase size; they belong in the linked DCA calculator.
Are monthly-average prices executable?
No. They summarize each calendar month. The analysis is an educational benchmark and not a reconstruction of exact trade fills.
Which strategy will win next time?
The page cannot know. Lump sum has more immediate exposure; DCA delays exposure and can benefit when prices fall during the contribution period. The future path determines the result.