EXACT-MONTH RELATIVE PRICE
How much gold equals one metric tonne of copper?
The ratio is copper USD per metric tonne divided by gold USD per troy ounce. A reading of 3.3 means the quoted value of one metric tonne of copper equals 3.3 troy ounces of gold—not that copper or gold is mispriced.
2026-07: $13,543 copper per metric tonne ÷ $4,073.00 gold per troy ounce = 3.325 gold troy ounces.
MONTHLY RETURN MAP
Which metal moved the ratio?
Each point compares adjacent monthly-average returns. Above the diagonal, gold rose more or fell less; below it, copper led. The zero lines expose months when the metals moved in opposite directions.
Interpretation boundary: copper is often described as cyclical and gold as monetary, but that shorthand does not identify why either price moved. Monthly averages, changing market structures and the ratio's unit construction matter. This chart is not a recession clock or a price forecast.
READ THE RATIO CORRECTLY
One line can move for three different reasons
Copper rises faster
The ratio rises when copper gains more than gold or falls less. That may coincide with stronger cyclical demand, but the chart alone cannot identify the cause.
Gold rises faster
The ratio falls when gold gains more than copper. Monetary demand, real yields, currencies and risk repricing may matter without any change in copper demand.
Both move together
A nearly unchanged ratio can hide large moves in both metals. Use the return map and exact values instead of reading the ratio line in isolation.
METHOD AND LIMITS
Comparable dates, deliberately different units
Gold is quoted in USD per troy ounce and copper in USD per metric tonne. Dividing copper by gold cancels the common currency and leaves a physical equivalence: gold troy ounces per metric tonne of copper. GoldObserve matches only exact calendar months from the same World Bank workbook and does not forward-fill missing observations.
The source observations are monthly averages. They smooth the path inside each month, do not reproduce a tradable close and exclude futures rolls, premiums, bid-ask spreads, financing, storage and taxes. The current local baseline contains the latest workbook vintage and therefore should not be treated as an unrevised historical-time database.
FAQ
Questions before using the chart
What is the copper-gold ratio?
GoldObserve divides copper's monthly USD price per metric tonne by gold's monthly USD price per troy ounce. The result is the number of gold troy ounces with the same quoted value as one metric tonne of copper.
Why compare copper with gold?
Copper demand is often more exposed to construction, manufacturing and electrification, while gold has stronger monetary, reserve and investment roles. The comparison can describe changing relative prices, but it does not isolate a single economic cause.
Does a falling copper-gold ratio predict recession?
No. The ratio can fall because copper declines, gold rises, or both move at different rates. Market structure, currencies, supply and investment flows also matter. Historical associations are not a deterministic recession signal or price forecast.
Are these spot prices?
They are World Bank Pink Sheet monthly-average commodity price observations. Monthly averages smooth daily and intraday paths and are not executable dealer or futures prices.
Can the source data be revised?
Yes. GoldObserve records the workbook hash and series hashes for the local version, but the World Bank may revise the latest workbook vintage. The chart is transparent about its source and version rather than claiming point-in-time vintage safety.
CONTINUE THE RESEARCH